One of the age old questions that lingers around poker is whether it is a game predominately of skill or luck. There is no denying that both skill and luck play significant parts of the game, but which is the dominant factor? This article will delve into the inner workings of Texas Holdem, compare the game to other variants such as Chess, and also compile quotes and insights from some of the world’s top poker players. DurrrrChallenge.com has been surprised at how divergent point of views are on this subject. From our experience, Texas Hold’em is clearly a mixture of both in the short term, and results are heavily weighted towards skill in the long term.

• Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Guide
• Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Game
• Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Cheat
• Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Skills

Or course Texas Hold'em Poker is a game of skill. Every article in this website (and we have now more than one hundred) demonstrates that, does it not? In my humble opinion, online poker has been such a success because it is a perfect blend between skill and luck. Texas Poker is a game of skill in the long term and luck in the short term. To explain why Texas Holdem Poker is a game of skill, I'll quote Dusty Schmidt 'Leatherass', a very well known online player. In his book Treat Your Poker Like a Business he explains it in the most simplistic (and best) way. Most of the general population, if polled, would probably tell you that poker is a game of luck. And you can't really blame them. After all poker is often played in a casino right alongside other games of chance like blackjack, craps and slot mach. While many arguments can be made for and against UIGEA, the single most important factor in determining the legality of poker is whether poker is a game of skill or a game of luck. The UIGEA defines unlawful internet gambling as transmitting through the internet a wager that is illegal under state or federal law. The worry, then, is that conclusively classifying poker as a game of skill might open the floodgates for commercial operators. Not a problem in itself, but definitely an issue when it comes to.

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The Insiders Comment

If you ask those deeply involved in poker, its top players and authors, they will argue that skill is by far the strongest factor.

Respected poker author David Sklansky has stated that good poker players “are at war with luck. They use their skills to minimize luck as much as possible.”

11-time WSOP bracelet winner Phil Hellmuth has infamously stated “If it weren’t for luck, I’d win every time.”

Poker Players Alliance Chairman Alfonse D’Amato and former New York Senator commented, “As a poker player, I can tell you that knowing when to hold or fold is not based solely on the cards that are dealt, but a series of decisions based on skill and the actions taken by other players. This study provides the raw data to back up the compelling arguments made by poker players around the world that it’s skill, not pure luck, that determines the outcome of this game.”

Scott Matusow, poker commentator and brother of Mike “The Mouth” Mouth Matusow, asserts that your perspective and approach to your game determines if poker is predominately a game of skill or luck. If you approach the game as a vocation that you apply yourself at, studying, disciplined and structured playing and observing strict bankroll management, you are bound to see that skill wins out in the end. If you are the casual player who likes the action, taking risks, gets emotional with wins and losses and rarely follows the recommended percentages or bankroll management, they are likely to view poker as based mostly on luck. In the end, the player perceptions aren’t the determining factor of whether poker is a skill game or not. The skill level of a player doesn’t determine whether the game is a game of skill or not. It only helps to determine their relative results in that game of skill.

You Can’t Avoid Losing No Matter How Skillful You Are

No one will debate that there isn’t considerable luck involved in poker, especially in the short term. No one controls what cards will be dealt. No player can win every hand. No player is always dealt a good hand or knows when their good hand will face a better hand. All you can do is play the percentages. The skilled player attempts to take advantage of luck when it visits them and how to minimize the effects when it visits their opponents.

Some poker players love to point at a string of unfortunate bad beats as signs that poker is mostly luck. The reality is you’ll suffer more bad beats if you’re playing well, because by definition a good player will be getting their money in the pot with the percentages in their favor. They are most likely ahead, thus more likely to get outdrawn more times than a poorly skilled player who won’t be ahead as often and thus can’t suffer as many bad beats.

A big distinction between poker and pure gambling games is when gambling you are playing against “the house.” The Casino has statistical edges to all their games which means in the long term you are destined to lose. In poker, the house has no interest in the outcome, as they are an impartial provider of the services for a fee. They provide a forum for the players to compete equally against each other. One player will win at the expense of others. The rules of real money poker accord every player a statistically equal chance to win, unlike gambling.

David Sklansky’s favorite argument for skill being predominant in poker is to look at gambling games and losing. In pure gambling games of chance, like baccarat or roulette, it is impossible to intentionally lose. Each move has a similar chance. That is not the case in poker. Poker players contribute significantly towards their results by the actions they choose to make. If poker relied mainly on luck, most players would play to showdown and turn over their cards on the river to let luck decide the winner. There are some who argue that there is no actual luck in poker, as luck is random and doesn’t favor anyone long term so it’s a non factor, there are just mathematical fluctuations that in the long run approximate the correct probabilities for your play.

Studies

A Global Poker Strategic Thinking Society study demonstrated clearly that participants who were given instructions and basic strategy advice outperformed those who were not instructed. It showed that players who selected their starting hands more carefully also fared better. Finally, the control group who received no prior instruction saw their results improve as time went on, showing that there was a learning by experience factor.

A Levitt and Miles study using date from 32,000 players who participated in the 57 2010 WSOP tournaments demonstrated that “previously classified ‘skilled’ players outperformed “unskilled” players by a large margin.” The “skilled” players achieved an average return on investment of over 30% while all others gain a negative 15% return on their results. Comparisons were made to skill and luck based accepted endeavours like stock investing.

In a 2009 Cigital study of 103 million hands of Hold’em played on PokerStars, it was shown that 75% of hands dealt never made it to showdown. Therefore the success of a hand depended more on players betting than on the cards they were dealt. The player with the best final hand rarely won the hand. Paco Hope, one of the studies’ authors stated “the same information is available to all players (the values of the cards), but it is skill in interpreting that information — not the presence of that information — that determines whether a player folds.”

The important caveat to all studies on the role of skill in poker is the length of time that you measure the results. In the short term, luck can overcome any skill you display, but over enough time, skill will always overwhelm luck in poker.

Poker vs. Chess or Financial Markets

Comparisons are made to chess or to the financial markets when comparing the skill element of poker. Poker is a game of incomplete information, whereas chess isn’t. In chess, it’s possible an unskilled player could get lucky for a move or two, but over the entire game, they can’t compete with a master player. Given enough time, the same would happen in poker. A true amateur would stand no chance long term against a top professional poker player.

As for the financial markets, there are numerous parallels with poker. Brokers look for edges to exploit, but the unpredictability of the markets can easily undermine prudent decisions. It’s said “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent” so even high percentage plays can fail. In the long run, the amateur is going to make too many low percentage plays and go broke.

Why Poker Is Popular

Much of the popularity of poker is due to the wonderful combination of luck and skill. If it were solely a game of skill, the inexperienced wouldn’t play because they would lose every time. If it were too much about luck, the professional players would give up. With the current balance of luck and skill in poker, on any given day anyone can win a tournament, but over time the skillful players will come out on top. Over time luck evens out and the skill difference will prevail. It is the psychological ramifications of how we deal with the skill and luck components that can prove challenging for many players.

Poker constantly puts you to decisions (e.g. bet or check, raise or fold) that require skill to navigate effectively. Each of your decisions impact your ability to win a hand or session. The fact that there are many levels of success in the game only goes to prove that their different skill levels influence their results long term.

When’s the last time you heard something about luck at the
Texas holdem table?

The odds are the last time you played you heard someone talk
about luck. If you’re honest you probably either talked about
luck or at least thought about it the last time you played.

Here’s a list of common things about luck heard around the
Texas holdem table:

• That sure was a lucky break.
• Talk about bad luck. She hit a four outer on the river to beat me.
• I just need to hit a lucky streak to get back to even.
• I’m the unluckiest poker player in the world.
• It’s lucky you hit your flush because I had the straight.

Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Guide

If you believe luck has anything to do with the results at
the Texas holdem table it’s time you learned the truth.

The truth is luck has nothing to do with anything that
happens at the Texas holdem table.

It doesn’t matter what you think or what you’ve heard or
seen, everything that happens is a matter of mathematical
probabilities and short term variance. Once you finish this page
you’ll realize this is true and you’ll learn how to use this
information against your opponents.

The best thing about learning the truth about luck and poker
is it instantly makes you a better player. When you understand
why luck has nothing to do with your results and how short term
variance works you’ll start looking at everything that happens
while you’re playing in a different way.

Once you learn about Texas holdem luck and variance you can
see how they’re directly related to odds, pot odds, and expected
value. If you haven’t read the pages covering those topics in
this section yet make sure to check them out after reading this
page.

How Short Term Variance Works

The reason luck doesn’t have anything to do with Texas holdem
is because you’re using a deck of playing cards within a strict
framework of rules. The deck of cards has a set number of cards,
52, and only a certain number of outcomes are possible in any
situation.

Before the river is dealt you have two pair and your opponent
has a gut shot straight draw. When your opponent gets one of the
four cards she needs to complete her straight it seems like good
luck for her and bad luck for you.

Let’s look at every possible outcome for this hand to see if
luck has anything to do with it.

The board has four cards, your opponent has two cards, and
you have two cards, for a total of eight known cards. This
leaves a total of 44 unseen cards. Four of the cards complete a
straight for your opponent and 40 of them don’t. So every 44
times you’re in this situation you’ll win 40 and lose four.

While the percentages or odds are in your favor, the more
times you’re in this situation the closer the results will come
to the correct percentages.

For example, if you’re in this situation 1,000 times you’ll
win roughly 909 times and lose roughly 91 times.

The important number to consider is you have to lose roughly
one out of every 11 times you’re in this situation. It has
nothing to do with luck and everything to do with simple
mathematics.

You should actually rejoice when your opponent draws out on
you in this situation because the average must come back to
normal eventually and you’ve just put one on the negative side.
This means in the long run you’re one closer to the dominating
numbers this situation requires.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking you’ll automatically win
the next 10 times if you just lost a hand in this situation.
While over the long term the averages always work out, the short
term isn’t guaranteed. You’re not even guaranteed to win the
next identical situation.

Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Game

It’s possible to lose two, three, or even more hands in a row
in this situation, even as a huge favorite. It’s not likely to
happen, but it can.

Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Cheat

This outcome shows why what really happens is normal and if a
result presents itself that isn’t favored to happen it’s simply
short term variance.

In this example we assumed you knew the values of your hole
cards as well as your opponents because of the way we set up the
hand. In most hands you won’t know the exact value of your
opponent’s cards but often you can generate a good guess. This
doesn’t change the lesson, simply the number of seen and unseen
cards.

Here are a couple more examples. The example we just covered
showed a hand where you were a huge favorite. Many players make
the mistake of thinking they’re a bigger favorite than they
actually are in some hands. The next example covers one of these
situations.

If you have a made hand after the turn and your opponent has
four to a flush, you’re a favorite to win the hand. But do you
know how many times you’ll win and lose on average? How big of a
favorite do you think you are?

You know the value of eight cards, leaving 44 unseen cards.
The deck has nine cards that complete your opponent’s flush, so
35 cards make you the winner. Your opponent will hit their flush
over 20% of the time. This means slightly over one out of every
five times you’re in this situation you lose.

This still makes you a big favorite, but you aren’t so big of
a favorite that you should expect to win on any single hand.

What if your opponent has an open end straight draw and a
flush draw? This means she has 15 outs out of 44 unseen cards.
This means she’ll win roughly 34% of the time, or 34 out of
every 100 times you play the situation.

If you have a suited ace and king and your opponent has a
pair of fives, the pair of fives will win just under 52% of the
time heads up and the suited ace king will win 48% of the time.
You’ll actually tie a very small percentage of the time, which
is covered in the slightly fewer than 52% of the time the pocket
fives win. For ease of calculation we’re using 52% and 48%.

When you play this situation 100 times the pocket fives hand
wins 52 times and the suite ace king wins 48 times. This is
close to a coin flip so you shouldn’t be surprised at either
outcome, no matter which side of the hand you’re on.

How Understanding Variance Helps with Tilt

It’s easy to get upset when an opponent does something stupid
but wins anyway or when you trick your opponent and have a
dominant hand only to get drawn out on. But now that you
understand it doesn’t have anything to do with luck you can use
this information to avoid tilt.

When you go on tilt you start making plays based on your
emotions, usually anger, instead of on sound playing decisions.
Any time you make a play at the Texas holdem table that isn’t
based on the decision that makes the most money in the long run
you’re costing yourself long term profit. Tilt clearly falls
into the category of playing decisions that aren’t based on the
correct decisions for long term profit.

The next time you lose in a situation where you’re
the heavy favorite remember what you learned in the last
section. Simply understanding how the math works can be enough
to help you remain calm and approach the next hand with a level
head and clear thinking.

You can also consider commenting about how lucky your
opponent was to try to get them to buy into how everything is
based on luck. You can learn more about this in the next
section.

Saying the Word Luck at the Table

As long as you never start believing that luck has anything
to do with the results at the Texas holdem table you should
spread the word around as much as possible.

You want as many of your opponents as possible to believe in
luck and keep striving to turn their luck around. If your
opponents believe everything that happens is based on luck
they’ll never learn how to improve their game. This helps you
win more in the long run.

Developing your skills and abilities to become a winning
Texas holdem player has a great deal to do with psychology. When
you fall into the trap of thinking that luck plays a role you
not only cost yourself money by basing your playing decisions on
luck and feelings instead of math, percentages, and odds, you
also run the risk of damaging the psychological way you play and
view the game.

Texas Holdem Poker Luck Or Skill Skills

You’re making an excuse for poor play instead of taking
responsibility for your mistakes and striving to correct them
and increase your profits.

If you can help other players fall into the believing in luck
trap you can help them damage their poker psychology. This in
turn helps you in the long run.

Don’t be afraid to tell everyone at the table how lucky you
are when you win a hand or get a nice starting hand. Everyone
gets dealt a pair of pocket aces or kings the same percentage of
times in the long run, but it can seem lucky when you get them.

Some players can get irritated if you comment on how lucky
they are on a hand, so you have to decide if you want to run the
risk of irritating your opponents when they win a hand. Some
players don’t have a problem being confrontational, but if you
do you might want to avoid starting the luck conversation. But
if one of your opponents mentions it feel free to jump in.

Pros Do It Too

You don’t even have to be an amateur poker player to fall
into the luck trap. Recently a televised poker game was on with
Mike Matusow. He was in a hand as a favorite and was considering
making an offer to run the hand twice but didn’t.

He ended up losing the hand and started whining about how no
one knew how bad he ran at poker. This is another way of saying
he always has bad luck. And he’s been a pro long enough to know
better.

If you’re not familiar with running a hand twice, in big cash
games sometimes the players agree to run a situation twice. If
they get all in pre flop with an ace and a king against a pair
of sevens they could run it twice, dealing the flop, turn, and
river and then dealing it again.

It’s a way to average out situations when playing for high
stakes. The only place you generally see it is at the highest
level tables.

Summary

Now that you know the difference between luck and short term
variance at the Texas holdem poker tables you can start using
what you’ve learned. The next time you’re on the short end of
the variance stick quietly rejoice because you’ve got one of the
losing draws out of the way. It always brings you one step
closer to winning in the long run.

Now you never need to worry about going on tilt again. Since
there’s no such thing as a bad beat you can stop getting upset
at the poker table. Just keep getting your money in when you’re
the favorite and let the math take care of everything else.